−25%
Streaming subs lost since 2021
−£153M
ITV ad revenue 2023
−$302M
Fox profit decline 2024
$89B vs $20B
M&A activity 2023 vs 2016
67%
Internet users 55+ on YouTube weekly
54%
Americans 13–38 who'd become an influencer
The thesis
If TV and digital press viewership declines continue at their current rate, in ten years total viewership will be below 30 minutes a day. The structural similarities to the 2008 housing crisis are too strong to ignore.
Creators are eating mainstream's lunch
Hot Ones pulls 89M monthly viewers. Tyler Oliveira: 51.5M. Chicken Shop Date: 44.3M. Compare with Graham Norton (13.8M), Vice (10.6M), the PGA Tour (10.8M). The asymmetry is the story.
What the next decade looks like
The brands that win will be those that move budget out of legacy media now and into a creator-led infrastructure with real measurement attached. The brands that wait will spend the next decade explaining declining ROI to their boards.